Blackout The Intelligence Company tic-feed/2 · BO

Where connectivity, BGP routing, and undersea cables go dark.

Correlates Georgia Tech IODA control-plane BGP and active-probing drops with OONI censorship telemetry, a hand-compiled register of submarine cable corridors, and suite tips (Elements earthquakes and volcanoes; Wake AIS once it is live) to tell apart domestic policy shutdowns from physical cable cuts. A provider watch adds IODA on the Starlink, Amazon, Microsoft and Google networks and the open incidents those providers report themselves.

Global Outage & Submarine Corridor Map

Click any corridor, landing station, country outage, or cross-program tip to inspect telemetry and deep-link via URL hash.

Submarine Cable Corridor Alerts & Chokepoint Registry

Warning problem BO-WP-2: triggered when ≥2 countries sharing a submarine corridor drop ≥20%, or when a drop co-occurs with a BO-IND-5 tip (≤50 km).

View all 5 monitored submarine cable corridors & landing stations

Active BGP & Probing Outages (IODA)

Median during the event against the median of the 7 days before it, per IODA signal (BGP, active probing, darknet). BO-IND-1: ≥25% for ≥30 min. BO-IND-4: one signal drops while BGP holds. A drop is called a likely shutdown only when OONI blocking (BO-IND-3) is present in the same country; on its own it fits a power or physical fault as well, so it is recorded as a measurement.

Application-Layer Censorship (OONI)

Confirmed blocking + anomaly share of all OONI measurements over 7 days, all tests together (BO-IND-3: ≥15% over ≥50 measurements). A fixed threshold, not a change from baseline: some countries sit above it every day.

Provider Watch: Starlink, Amazon, Microsoft, Google (BO-WP-3)

Two separate checks. Network: IODA BGP and active probing on each watched network (ASN), median during the window against the median of the 7 days before; BO-IND-6 is a drop of ≥5% over ≥30 min (the largest 3-hour dip on these networks in the week to 12 Nov 2026 was 1.6%). Status feeds: incidents each provider lists as open on its own status page (BO-IND-7), republished as the provider reports them, with no assessment of cause. BO-IND-8: drops or incidents at two or more providers starting within 2 h. A status feed with nothing open is not proof a provider is up: Microsoft 365 is not on Azure's feed, and Starlink's Statuspage has listed nothing since April 2022.

Watched networks (IODA)

Provider status feeds

Open incidents the providers report

Suite Tips (Elements, Wake, Vigil)

Interests BO-INT-1 (earthquakes, volcanoes), BO-INT-2 (AIS loitering or anchor drag; Wake is not live yet) and BO-INT-3 (attacks on telecom carriers). A tip counts toward a cable-fault call (BO-IND-5) only when its own coordinates fall within 50 km of a corridor point; tips naming an outage country are shown as context and do not change any likelihood.

Contract-v2 Doctrine Assessments & Observations (tic-feed/2)

ICD-203 confidence rubrics, likelihood terms, diagnostic alternatives (tell_apart), National Critical Functions (NCF), and source lineage.